I agree its a bet, and I used to get broken headlights all the time on cars and bikes but since headlights changed over to plastic have never seen a broken one. I do put clear vinyl wrap over the lights and other bits of body work that get damaged with gravel rash, every year or two I pull that off and replace it looks like new. I have seen stones go through bike body panels never through a headlight.The headlight guard is like an insurance policy, you betting problems will occur and the insurance actuarial betting they will not. At stake is an OEM-=priced headlight module for $1,800 or after-maket for about $1,350 plus labor. I bought a set for mine the could not make the mount play nice in the sandbox with my Heed bar mount up front, so sold it to a friend who could make it work with his GIVI bars.